The Great Spam ExperimentCadzow conducted an experiment to track spam volumes over a period of time. To do this, on 16/04/2004 we created 7 new mailboxes which are used only for this experiment. They were placed on the internet thus: - On our public website as a clickable hyperlink;
- On our public website as a clickable hyperlink (all received emails will send a read receipt and download inline graphics);
- On our public website as unclickable text;
- Used as reply address in newsgroup posting;
- Placed in body of newsgroup posting; and
- Placed in body of newsgroup posting obscured as “(alias) at cadzow dot com dot au”; and
- Used to subscribe to an IT-related website.
The winner of the first hit was the mailbox posted as a newsgroup post reply-to address which received a virus (W32/[email protected]) after about 6 hours. The runner-ups were the clickable and unclickable links on the website which both received the same message on 19/04/2004. And, just for fun, we also tracked spam messages sent to non-existent mailboxes at our domain name. This is an increasingly popular way for spammers to get their message out because it doesn't even involve knowing any real addresses. They simply send emails to random names at domains. Domains are publicly known, so fetching a list of domains is quite easy. This can explain why people who set up a domain name start receiving spam almost immediately if the domain hosting provider is collecting “stray” mail. The experiment ended in June 2011. Spam arriving in inboxes reduced to virtually nothing due to the aggressive filtering employed by ISPs and other service providers. ResultsPeriod | Web: Clickable Hyperlink | Web: Clickable Hyperlink (Read Receipts) | Web: Unclickable Text | Newsgroups: Reply Address | Newsgroups: Message Body | Newsgroups: Message Body (Obscured) | Web Site Subscription | Stray Mail | April 2004 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | May 2004 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | June 2004 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 544 | July 2004 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | August 2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | Sept 2004 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 128 | October 2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | Nov 2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | Dec 2004 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | Jan 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 126 | Feb 2005 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | March 2005 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87 | April 2005 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 | May 2005 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 103 | June 2005 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | July 2005 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | August 2005 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 98 | Sept 2005 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | October 2005 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 155 | Nov 2005 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | Dec 2005 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | Jan 2006 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 | Feb 2006 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | March 2006 | 51 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | April 2006 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 465 | May 2006 | 41 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 897 | June 2006 | 81 | 0 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1286 | July 2006 | 76 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1165 | August 2006 | 82 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1288 | Sept 2006 | 47 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1431 | October 2006 | 87 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2292 | Nov 2006 | 130 | 0 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26430 | Dec 2006 | 94 | 0 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3986 | Jan 2007 | 75 | 4 | 59 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3496 | Feb 2007 | 58 | 2 | 78 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3656 | March 2007 | 68 | 3 | 25 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3537 | April 2007 | 40 | 1 | 32 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2713 | May 2007 | 33 | 1 | 37 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2337 | June 2007 | 54 | 0 | 185 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3483 | July 2007 | 120 | 0 | 324 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6916 | August 2007 | 268 | 3 | 538 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11218 | Sept 2007 | 154 | 1 | 246 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7538 | October 2007 | 51 | 1 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3263 | November 2007 | 27 | 1 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2104 | Dec 2007 | 34 | 0 | 97 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2277 | Jan 2008 | 17 | 3 | 68 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1306 | Feb 2008 | 66 | 0 | 68 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3792 | March 2008 | 91 | 4 | 104 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4441 | April 2008 | 80 | 1 | 104 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4628 | May 2008 | 72 | 1 | 95 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3906 | June 2008 | 40 | 12 | 54 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2681 | July 2008 | 37 | 23 | 57 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2605 | August 2008 | 31 | 0 | 34 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1642 | September 2008 | 72 | 10 | 49 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2900 | October 2008 | 41 | 17 | 42 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2236 | November 2008 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 583 | December 2008 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 251 | January 2009 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | February 2009 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | March 2009 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | April 2009 | 7 | 1 | 74 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 723 | May 2009 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 826 | June 2009 | 19 | 1 | 30 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 778 | July 2009 | 20 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 384 | August 2009 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | September 2009 | 18 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 | October 2009 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | November 2009 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 | December 2009 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | January 2010 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | February 2010 | 12 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | March 2010 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | April 2010 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 400 | May 2010 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1071 | June 2010 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1366 | July 2010 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 786 | August 2010 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 313 | September 2010 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | October 2010 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 111 | November 2010 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | December 2010 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | January 2011 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | February 2011 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | March 2011 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | April 2011 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 108 | May 2011 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | June 2011 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 |
Yearly TotalsYear | Web: Clickable Hyperlink | Web: Clickable Hyperlink (Read Receipts) | Web: Unclickable Text | Newsgroups: Reply Address | Newsgroups: Message Body | Newsgroups: Message Body (Obscured) | Web Site Subscription | Stray Mail | 2004 † | 12 | 15 | 12 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3110 | 2005 | 81 | 28 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1350 | 2006 | 754 | 4 | 539 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39904 | 2007 | 982 | 17 | 1729 | 509 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52538 | 2008 | 565 | 82 | 705 | 267 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30971 | 2009 | 125 | 32 | 271 | 204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4388 | 2010 | 118 | 6 | 163 | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5363 | 2011 (Half Year) | 45 | 9 | 47 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 627 |
As of the end of 2007, this is a 189% year-on-year increase from 2004. However, since the spam only started to arrive in bulk in 2006, it makes more sense to compare 2007 with 2006, in which case it is a 35% increase. (See also Spam/Phishing — What's Happening Lately? (2007) and Spam/Phishing — What's Happening Lately? (2009).) † Extrapolated to full year. Chart! The right-hand scale (red) is all spam received, including stray mail. The left-hand scale (blue) is spam received only by named mailboxes. The black line is the linear trend.Conclusions- Putting an email on a website will attract a steady stream of spam. Whether the email is clickable or not seems to make only a small difference.
- Posting to newsgroups invites a quick burst of spam and then it peters away.
- The worst attractor of spam is a stray mail collector on a domain name.
- Spam delivered to Inboxes has diminished to a trickle due to ISP and hosting-provider spam filtering, blacklists and so on.
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